Surprising Northern Virginia Housing Numbers

Super Low Inventory

The latest housing data in Northern Virginia shows a slowing market, unusual for this time of year when we are heading into the busy summer months. 

Inventory is tight throughout most of the region, with active listings still on the low side. Warren County had 83 listings, below their April average of 122. Fairfax was well below their average with 882, Arlington County with only 275, Frederick County coming in low with 192, Loudoun County with only 434, Fauquier County with 123, Stafford County with 213, Prince William County with 365, and Alexandria City with only 154 which is a five year low for them. The one outlier was Washington, DC, which had 1,762 active listings, which is a five-year high and well above their average of 1,573. 

Year over year, new pending sales were also down considerably throughout Northern Virginia. Warren County saw its new pendings down 33% from last April, Fairfax County down 29%, Arlington County down 21%, Frederick County down 34%, Alexandria City down 31%, Washington down 21%, Prince William County down 30%, Stafford County down 22%, Loudoun County down 32%, and Fauquier County down 29%. 

Year over year, the median sold price was up in some regions and down in others, although usually not by a significant margin. Washington was down 3.2%, Prince William County was down 1%, Stafford County down 2%, Loudoun County down 2.7%, and Fauquier County was the only place with a significant drop at 8% below last year. 

Areas with price increases include a modest .8% rise in Alexandria City and .7% in Fairfax County. Warren County had a year over year median sold price increase of 7%, Arlington County with an increase of 6.1%, and Frederick County with the most substantial increase at 9.8%

Most areas are seeing an average day on the market at right around their five year average, except homes in Arlington County, Alexandria City, and Washington are taking a bit longer than average to sell. 

We have talked about this before; Northern Virginia and Washington, DC, with our more stable economy, tend to be insulated from the wild swings in the local markets of places that are more prone to changing economic conditions, such as cities in the midwest with a large manufacturing base, for example. 

Changing Buyer and Seller Behavior 

On the ground, we are definitely seeing buyer and seller behavior that suggests the price data may be a bit misleading. Interest rates have shot up so quickly that many would-be sellers are staying on the sidelines because they do not want to give up their 3% or so interest rate that they locked in as recently as 18 months ago. 

Anecdotally, buyers seem unafraid to get into bidding wars again, with many listings receiving multiple offers, so the tight inventory will likely remain through the summer months. 

In macroeconomic news, some recent data indicates that inflation has already peaked and may be on its way down, which will allow the Federal Reserve to halt the rate hikes, and then likely slowly start lowering them again early in 2024. 

Text me anytime at 571-437-7575

Chris Colgan - EXP Realty