Big Changes Coming to the Northern Virginia Housing Market? Read This!!

May 01, 2024

Hello, Northern Virginia! As a local real estate expert, I'm here to dive into the latest trends and changes in our housing market. With over 5 to 10 million viewers tuning into my local Instagram monthly, I've gathered insights across various counties, from Warrenton to Fairfax, and I'm excited to share these with you. Whether you're buying, selling, or just curious about the market, this article will provide you with the detailed analysis you need.

Warren County: A Closer Look

Warren County, encompassing areas like Front Royal and Lyon, has seen some interesting shifts:

New Listings: Increased by 40%
Pending Sales: Up by 14%
Closed Sales: Down by 24%
Median Sold Price: $410,000 for the month, with a year-to-date average of $390,000, marking a 2.12% increase
Active Listings: Holding steady around the five-year average of 91
Days on Market: Averaging 43 days
Percentage of Asking Price Received: Approximately 99.1%

This data suggests that while the market in Warren County is active, homes are taking a bit longer to sell, and sellers are getting close to their asking price. The preference for proximity to larger hubs like DC and Fairfax remains strong, influencing buyer decisions.

Stafford County: Expanding and Evolving

Stafford County has experienced significant changes, partly due to infrastructure developments like the expansion of the 95 HOT lanes:

New Listings: Decreased by 15%
Pending Sales: Increased by 12%
Closed Sales: Decreased by 28%
Median Sold Price: $522,000, a substantial 99.8% increase year-over-year
Active Listings: Below the five-year average with 182 listings
Days on Market: Surprisingly under 30 days

The market in Stafford, particularly around Fredericksburg, is showing robust price growth despite a slowdown in closed sales. The area's appeal is boosted by its relative affordability compared to closer-in suburbs.

Fauquier County: Steady Growth in Outer Suburbs

In Fauquier County, including areas like Warrenton and Marshall, the market dynamics are as follows:

New Listings: 87
Pending Sales: Up by 30%
Closed Sales: Down by 14%
Median Sold Price: $552,200, up 11% year-over-year
Active Listings: Below the five-year average
Days on Market: Averaging 48 days

Despite a slower pace in closing sales, the increase in pending sales indicates a healthy interest in the area, likely driven by new construction and the appeal of more rural settings.

Culpeper County: Navigating New Developments and Market Adjustments

Culpeper County has been a topic of interest, especially on social media platforms like Instagram, where many of my followers have been inquiring about the area. Here's a breakdown of the latest market statistics:

New Listings: Increased by 22%
Pending Sales: Up by 40%
Closed Sales: Increased by 22%
Median Sold Price: Showing a slight downward trend
Active Listings: Above the five-year average
Days on Market: Averaging 33 days
Percentage of Asking Price Received: Around 97%

The rise in new and pending sales suggests a growing interest in Culpeper, possibly fueled by new construction developments. However, the slight decrease in median sold prices and the higher number of active listings could indicate a more buyer-friendly market.

Prince William County: A Hotspot for Real Estate Activity

As a resident and real estate enthusiast, I've closely observed the trends in Prince William County, which includes areas like Haymarket, Gainesville, and Woodbridge. Here's what's happening:

New Listings: Down by 12%
Pending Sales: Up by 3%
Closed Sales: Down by 12%
Median Sold Price: $580,000, up 11% from last year
Active Listings: Near a five-year low with 273 listings
Days on Market: Averaging 17 days

The county remains one of the hottest markets in Northern Virginia, thanks to infrastructure improvements and a strong demand for housing. The scarcity of new listings and the quick sales pace highlight the competitive nature of this market.

Fairfax County: Leading the Charge in Northern Virginia

Fairfax County continues to be one of the most sought-after areas in the nation:

New Listings: Decreased, with only a thousand new properties listed
Pending Sales: Up by 2%
Closed Sales: Down, with only 818 properties sold
Median Sold Price: $740,000, marking a 12% increase
Active Listings: Almost at a five-year low with 827 listings
Days on Market: Averaging only 14 days
Percentage of Asking Price Received: Approximately 12.6%

Fairfax County's real estate market is booming, with prices climbing and properties selling rapidly. This is largely due to its robust job market, excellent schools, and high quality of life, making it a top choice for many buyers.

Loudoun County: Steady and Strong

Loudoun County, known for its beautiful landscapes and strong community, shows the following trends:

New Listings: Down by 10%
Pending Sales: Down by 6%
Closed Sales: Down to 355
Median Sold Price: $750,000, up by 4%
Active Listings: At the five-year average with 419 listings
Days on Market: Averaging 14 days
Percentage of Asking Price Received: Around 10.4%

Despite a slight slowdown in new and pending sales, Loudoun County's market remains healthy, with properties selling relatively quickly and for near asking price.

Arlington and Alexandria: Urban Appeal

These two counties near DC have their unique appeal:

Alexandria:

New Listings: Down by 8%
Pending Sales: Up by 3%
Closed Sales: Down by 16%
Median Sold Price: $720,000, up by 5%
Active Listings: At a five-year low with only 130 listings
**Days on Market**: Averaging 13 days
Percentage of Asking Price Received: Approximately 10.3%

Alexandria continues to attract a lot of attention, especially from those who appreciate its proximity to DC and the vibrant lifestyle it offers. The market remains competitive with homes selling quickly and for a significant percentage of the asking price.

Arlington:

New Listings: Down by 16%
Pending Sales: Down by 5%
Closed Sales: Down by 10%
Median Sold Price: $770,000, up by 10%
Active Listings: Near a five-year low with 224 listings
Days on Market: Averaging 27 days
Percentage of Asking Price Received: Approximately 100.6%

Arlington's market dynamics reflect its unique position as a hub of diverse housing options, from high-rise condos to large townhomes. Despite a slowdown in some metrics, the market remains robust with properties fetching more than their asking price on average.

Conclusion:

The Northern Virginia real estate market is diverse, with urban hubs like Arlington and Alexandria, as well as quieter areas like Loudoun and Fauquier Counties. Despite overall health, challenges persist such as low inventory and high demand, making it competitive for buyers. Staying informed about trends is vital for buyers and sellers alike, whether in bustling Fairfax or tranquil Culpeper. Need guidance? Reach out at info@colganteam.com. Let's navigate this market together!

Northern Virginia and DC Real Estate Expert - Chris Colgan

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